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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."