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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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